Slow release of demand in the hottest steel indust

2022-10-23
  • Detail

Steel industry: demand is released and each institution has its own research focus. The dilemma of slow steel price rise and fall

steel price fluctuates in a narrow range, and the upside down of the current period reveals lack of market confidence. Under the influence of the slow recovery of downstream demand, the spot and futures prices in the steel market showed a dilemma this week, and the market continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with relatively light transactions. It is worth noting that this week, all steel varieties are expected to show up. The phenomenon that we usually hang up when doing experiments also reflects the market's concern about the future market. At present, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot coil, cold rolling and medium plate are 4323, 4381, 4366, 5166 and 4414 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of 0.17%, 0.35%, 0.32%, 0.17% and -0.07% respectively; The futures prices of thread and wire rod were 4320 and 4309 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of -0.09% and 0.21% respectively

the price of domestic iron ore weakened and the sea freight rose sharply. This week, due to the holiday, a number of scientific research institutes that research instruments have done a lot of research, which has affected the iron ore market, the transaction volume has plummeted, the iron concentrate market has continued to weaken, and the steel plant procurement is not active, but the spot price of imported iron ore shows a slight recovery. At present, the price of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan is 1071 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.61%; The price of 63.5% iron concentrate powder in India was 1070 yuan/ton, and China's iron ore index was 1048 yuan/ton, both unchanged from last week; The swap price in Singapore was reported at US $148/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.06%. Brazil China and Australia China Ocean Freight were $20.92 and $7.89 per ton, respectively, with weekly growth of 6.11% and 4.34% respectively

costs fell slightly and profits rebounded slightly. This week, the pig iron cost and billet cost of spot ore sources were 2773 and 3369 yuan/ton respectively, with a weekly decrease of 0.86% and 0.71% respectively. In terms of products, the spot profits of rebar, wire rod, hot coil, cold plate and medium plate were 122.2, 12.6, -35.9, 228.0 and -34.2 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly growth rates of 30.7, 37.2, 37.2, 18.1 and 22.8 yuan/ton respectively, and the gross profit margins were 3.31%, 0.34%, 0.96%, 5.16% and -0.91% respectively

after the middle of February, affected by the seasonal warming and traders' de stocking mentality, social inventories have declined for seven consecutive weeks, but the de stocking speed is relatively slow. The total this week was 17.755 million tons, with a decrease of 133000 tons on a weekly basis. The inventories of rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, medium plate and cold rolled coil were 804.9, 217.0, 433.2, 151.4 and 1689 million tons respectively, with weekly changes of -0.20%, -0.85%, -1.98%, 0.27% and -0.84% respectively

ferrous metal index [0.20%] rose slightly outperforming the market. Positive news such as the approval of the new investment quota of US $50billion in QFII and RMB 50billion in rqfii this week and the good performance of the official PMI index in March slightly boosted market confidence. The Shanghai composite index reported 2306.55 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. Due to the fact that we are all in accordance with the three Premier's speeches, the market regained its investment growth expectations, and the demand for new orders in the steel PMI index rebounded after the weather warmed up, the ferrous metal index closed at 2116.52 on Friday this week, with a weekly increase of 3.12%

highlights of the week: the final value of HSBC PMI in March was 48.3, and the manufacturing industry slowed down month on month for the fifth consecutive month; Chongqing Iron and steel [0.00% capital research report] restructuring veil is lifted, and Changshou new area iron and steel base needs attention; PMI of steel industry rebounded to 49.3%; China's PMI continued to rise to 53.1% in March; At the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, Xinjiang's steel production capacity was controlled at 32 million tons

with the warmer weather, the downstream works of steel are gradually resumed. However, it is worth noting that under the background of no significant improvement in the macro economy, the recovery of demand in the first quarter of this year is significantly lower than market expectations, and the steel price is still facing a dilemma. The high correlation between the ore price and the steel price trend has also led to the continuous squeeze of steel mill profits, and the fundamentals of the industry have not been fundamentally improved. In addition, Since this week, there have been continuous news of the tightening of the capital chain of Shanghai traders, which is particularly worthy of further attention and vigilance

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI