The hottest North material goes south and the pros

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The prospect of Beicai going south is intertwined

the so-called Beicai going south refers to the decline in the market demand for construction steel in the northern region (mainly the northeast region) due to the decline in temperature, and some resources flow to the markets in southern and eastern China, such as the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, where there is a price difference. The time is probably from September of that year to march of the next year. The so-called "North material going south" refers to the fact that the northern region (mainly the northeast region) is affected by the temperature drop, the market demand for construction steel has declined, and some resources flow to the markets in southern and eastern China, such as the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, where there is a price difference. The time is probably from September of that year to march of the next year

according to the monitoring information in the industry, in the winter of 2011, the accumulated construction steel resources of northeast steel factory southward reached 1.28 million tons; In 2012, the cumulative amount of resources going south reached about 1.87 million tons, an increase of 46% over the previous year. It is estimated that in 2013, the planned delivery of construction steel for steel mills in Northeast China to the south is about 2.71 million tons, a significant increase over last year. Steel enterprises preparing to go south include Heilongjiang Jianlong, Jilin Xinda, Siping, Liaoning Beitai, Jiachen, etc. In terms of marketing mode, northeast steel enterprises mainly adopt two kinds: one is through the distribution organization of the enterprise in the above areas; The second is to distribute through agents, and implement the strategy of selling first and then settling accounts, which gives steel traders more flexible space and reduces the financial pressure at the same time

delay in departure

however, the start time of Beicai's southbound journey this winter has been delayed. According to industry monitoring, in mid September, the arrival volume of steel at Guangzhou port was 361000 tons, an increase of 54.9% over the same period last year; In late September, the arrival volume increased by 202.1% over the same period last year. However, in October, the growth rate of steel arrival slowed down, and there was even a negative growth (-14.7%) in mid October. Until the first ten days of November, the arrival volume of steel at Guangzhou port increased to 259000 tons, an increase of 77.4% over the same period last year

According to the steel plant plan, in November, Heilongjiang Jianlong iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is expected to sell about 30000 tons of deformed steel bars to Shanghai and Guangzhou, and Jilin Xinda iron and Steel Co., Ltd. is expected to sell a total of about 50000 tons of high-speed wire rods to Shanghai and Guangzhou. At the same time, the construction steel inventory in Northeast China is also low. As of November 22, the laboratory personnel need to maintain a high degree of concentration. The construction steel inventory in Shenyang market is about 168100 tons, a decrease of about 7200 tons compared with the previous weekend. The reason is precisely because the local price is low, steel mills are more concentrated and resources are diverted southward, and there are fewer new resources in the market. It is expected in the industry that the resources of northeast steel plant going south may arrive in a centralized manner at the end of November and early December

from the above situation, it can be seen that this winter, the time for North material of northeast steel plant to go south was delayed by nearly one month compared with the previous year. It is mainly based on two reasons:

first, the on-site calibration of five epidemic prevention medical equipment in the peak season and off-season makes the pace of Beicai's southward move a little disordered. This year, the north and South steel markets of Jinjiu are in a bear market, and the marketing of steel mills is under siege, resulting in the southward movement of yinshibeicai. In November, the construction steel market unexpectedly experienced a wave of price rise, which attracted the attention of northeast steel plant and focused on the regional market

second, the operation of steel mills tends to be rational. In the past, most northern steel products entered the southern market at low prices, but if 11. Deformation measurement accuracy: within ± 0.5% of the indicated value; If the price in the southern market is also low, this profit model will hit a wall. Especially at present, the southern steel enterprises are also facing the problems of high production capacity, low demand and tight capital. The brand advantage of northern steel is not strong. In the process of going south, the profit model based on price difference alone may no longer work. Moreover, compared with previous years, this year, the production cost of steel mills remains high, the market demand continues to weaken, and many steel enterprises are struggling on the profit and loss line. Therefore, while reducing the amount of resources going south, it has also issued a diversified sales strategy to hedge risks, and Beicai going south is more rational

the outlook is tangled

in terms of price, the price of construction steel in East and South China is generally about 300 yuan/ton higher than that in Northeast China. According to insiders, if transported by sea, the logistics cost per ton of steel is about 100 yuan/ton. According to this calculation, the construction steel resources in Northeast China can still make money after going south. This is also the reason why northeast steel still chooses to divert resources southward under the current situation of relatively low market and high production costs

however, insiders believe that there are still many negative factors in the later stage, which may entangle the prospect of Beicai going south this winter

first, the slowdown in investment growth will affect the overall demand for construction steel. The macro data released by the National Bureau of statistics for October remained stable, investment and consumption remained basically stable, while industry improved slightly, continuing the stabilization trend since the third quarter. However, infrastructure and real estate investment began to show signs of slowing down. From January to October, the national real estate development investment increased by 19.2% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points lower than that from January to September; The investment in national railway infrastructure construction was 383.475 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, and the growth rate was 6.8 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In the last two months of this year, the overall level of fixed asset investment will not increase significantly, and the demand intensity of construction steel will be weakened

second, there are abundant steel resources in the south. The construction steel production of most steel mills in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and adjacent provinces is in a state of rapid growth. From January to October this year, the year-on-year growth rate of steel production in Guangdong, Guangxi, Anhui, Fujian and other places was more than 20%, and that in Jiangsu and Jiangxi was more than 10%. These regions have a strong resource coverage capacity, which can basically meet the local market demand in terms of supply. Some insiders even worry that if the southern region forms a "green action plan" with quantitative advantages, which has been praised by all parties, it may put Beicai in an embarrassing situation of price without market

moreover, after the northern steel resources are concentrated into the southern market, it will inevitably increase the supply pressure of the local market, and then lower the steel price, and the existing price difference will gradually narrow or even disappear

third, the reform dividend cannot be released in the short term. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee pointed out a clear direction for China's economic reform, but on the whole, it is still macro, and the key depends on the subsequent implementation of the detailed rules, the strength and effect of implementation. The release of reform dividends will take some time

in this case, northeast construction steel production enterprises should grasp the production rhythm, carefully do a good job in the work of Beicai going south, and survive the winter with the superposition of negative factors such as cold weather and demand shortage

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