Hottest market research crude oil breaks through t

2022-08-17
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Market Research: crude oil has broken through the 100 yuan mark and continued to rise, which is still in suspense.

Content abstract:

international crude oil: the current market still believes that the supply and demand of crude oil is still tight at least in the short term. On this basis, coupled with the Fed's continuous interest rate cuts, the dollar weakened. The dispute between Venezuela and the United States still has the possibility of further deterioration. At the same time, factors such as the decision that OPEC may make to reduce production at the meeting in March have become the driving force for the re-entry into the market of long funds, which had significantly reduced their positions due to the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis at the beginning of the year, to push up oil prices. Therefore, recently, the oil price reversed its weakness, turned stronger, and historically stood above the 100 yuan mark. However, in addition to the above factors, there are still uncertainties about the current increase trend of U.S. crude oil and oil inventories and how much impact the U.S. subprime debt crisis will have on crude oil demand. These are important factors that shake the foundation of oil prices, especially those above the high level of 100 yuan. Therefore, the author believes that the foundation of this round of oil price rise is not very solid, and it is expected that there will be some repetition near the 100 yuan pass. If you want to operate above 100 yuan for a long time, you need further support from the fundamentals, such as the decline in inventory, or the deterioration of the geopolitical situation, a larger scale supply interruption, and so on. At present, the upper resistance level of NYMEX crude oil futures price is near $100, and the lower support level is at $95

fuel oil market: on the whole, the domestic fuel oil market price is expected to remain at a high level in the future. On the one hand, although the fuel oil supply in Singapore market was relatively abundant in March and April, China's recent power supply shortage due to the rain and snow disaster has led to a sharp increase in the demand for fuel oil by fuel fired power plants, and the restoration of power supply to normal is as soon as March. The increase in demand caused Singapore inventory to fall to a low point in the month. In addition, the domestic adjustment of fuel oil consumption tax has increased the spot cost by nearly 100 yuan/ton. This will become an important factor to support prices at a high level. But on the other hand, due to the influence of domestic consumption tax adjustment factors, the market demand for fuel oil will be restrained to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the fuel oil futures price in Shanghai will continue to rise rapidly at the current level. The possibility of high-level oscillation in the later stage is greater. From the perspective of technical analysis, the resistance level above the main may contract is at the front high of 4318 yuan, and the lower support is at the 4000 yuan level

part I: analysis of the trend of the international crude oil market

I. review of the international crude oil market and current trend

Figure 1:

international crude oil trend and price difference chart. (source: Beijing mid term)

at the beginning of the 2008 new year, the price of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose and fell after hitting a new high of $100 a barrel on the first trading day at the beginning of the year. At first, the market was affected by the violence in Nigeria and Algeria, and the transportation affected by the strong winds and waves in the Gulf of Mexico, which once again caused supply concerns. After the new year, speculative funds returned to the market to buy crude oil. Therefore, on the first day of the new year, nymex2 crude oil futures closed at $99.62 a barrel, hitting a maximum of $100.00, breaking the previous record high of $99.29 set on November 21, 2007. The next trading day, the record was rewritten to $100.09 a barrel

at the beginning of the year, the government data showed that the unemployment rate in the United States reached a two-year high, and the reports of many banks aggravated the market's concern about the decline of the U.S. economy. Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase lost more than $22billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. This caused the global stock market to plummet, and the US stock market fell for several consecutive days; The Nikkei index fell 5.65% in a single day, the largest one-day decline since the 9/11 incident; The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong also experienced the largest one-day decline in history, falling 2061 points throughout the world, down as much as 8.65 to several 10 tons (such as ordinary steel; the experimental force of domestic electronic hydraulic universal testing machine is 600kN, level 0.5 machine)%, while the state-owned enterprise index fell by 1619.54 points, down as much as 11.97%; The Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply from around 5500 points. After a sharp fall of 5.14% on the 21st, it fell 7.22% again on the 22nd, and 50% of the stocks wiped out the rebound results since 5.30; European stock markets also recorded a rare decline of 7% over the years. Not only the stock market, the panic of economic recession spread to the commodity market, and the metal market plummeted again. At the same time, under the expectation that the economic recession will hit oil demand, crude oil prices also fell continuously from the high of 100 yuan in January. On January 22, the lowest level once fell to a six week low of $86.11

after the new year, affected by the cold snap in the northeast of the United States, refinery failures, Venezuela's threat to interrupt supply due to the escalation of disputes with ExxonMobil, and good economic data in the United States, crude oil prices rebounded continuously from around $87 a barrel. NYMEX March crude oil futures closed sharply higher by $4.51, or 4.7%, at $100.01 a barrel on February 19. The highest hit $100.10 a barrel, up 1 cent from its previous record high hit on January 3. The closing price also exceeded the previous record high of $99.62 hit on January 2. Since then, after a period of twists and turns, the oil price has finally reached the threshold of 100 yuan

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International Supply and demand - although the economy shows signs of slowing down, the short-term supply and demand pattern is still tight

according to the latest report of the American Energy Information Association (EIA), the global average daily crude oil demand in the first quarter is expected to be 87.21 million barrels, 0.6% lower than the previous expectation, but 1.8% higher than the 85.68 million barrels in the same period last year. Crude oil demand in the second quarter is expected to decrease by 1.13 million barrels, or 1.3%, compared with the first quarter. In addition, the average daily crude oil demand of major OECD industrial countries in the first quarter will be 50.28 million barrels, 0.5% lower than previously expected and 1.6% higher than the same period last year

in terms of supply, the average daily output of OPEC crude oil is expected to be 32.24 million barrels in the first quarter of 2008, and will remain at this level throughout 2008. Non OPEC oil producing countries will increase their crude oil production by 900000 barrels per day this year. As the main buyer of global oil, the commercial oil inventory of OECD member countries will be lower than the five-year average level in 2008

at the latest ministerial meeting of OPEC held on February 1, the organization decided to maintain the current daily crude oil production level. Officials from some OPEC member countries even believe that if there is a significant decline in oil consumption and an increase in inventories in the first quarter, OPEC will consider reducing production at its meeting on March 5. Although the growth rate of global oil consumption is expected to slow down this year, the oil market will remain tight in the first half of this year, mainly because the current surplus capacity is still insufficient. The organization predicts that the substantial easing of global oil supply and demand tension this year may take until the second half of the year, and the growth of domestic energy in OPEC and non OPEC oil producers is the main driving factor. If the global economy decelerates more than expected, the slowdown in oil consumption growth will also be more serious

in addition, the data released by China Customs showed that the annual crude oil import in 2007 increased by 12.4% year-on-year to 163.17 million tons, and the crude oil import in December was 12.88 million tons. The customs also said that in 2007, the import of refined oil products was 33.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; The export of refined oil increased by 25.6% to 15.51 million tons

from this point of view, although the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing down due to the subprime debt crisis, it has a limited impact on the demand of European and American countries in the short term. "In recent years, coupled with the rigid growth of crude oil demand in China and other emerging countries, it is expected that the international crude oil market will remain tight in the short term. This also provides a prerequisite for the high operation of oil prices.

Figure 2:

world crude oil consumption growth

world crude oil consumption growth trend chart. (source: EIA million barrels/day)

Figure 3:

world crude oil demand and production growth (year-on-year)

trend chart of world crude oil demand and production growth. (source: EIA million barrels/day)

Figure 4:

OPEC crude oil surplus capacity

OPEC crude oil surplus capacity trend chart. (source: EIA unit: million barrels/day)

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